FU-LU-SHOU: The three Chinese deities represent the ideals of Good fortune (Fu); Prosperity (Lu) and Longevity (Shou). This Blog is a repository of my musings on Travel, Good Food, Jazz, Guitars, Nature, Mathematics and anything under the sun.

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Simulating The Effects Of Age On A Guitar

My friend Bill Kirchen playing his 1953 Telecaster
ToneRite: Aging the guitar with vibration technology The back of the ToneRite showing the grooves for the six strings

ToneRite affixed on a guitar
Road-Worn Fender '50's Telecaster: Cosmetic aging for the cool look

Close-up of the Telecaster
We all know how old violins especially those made by the Master luthiers of Cremona, Italy are treasured for their glorious tone. Virtuoso musicians always insist on violins such as a Stradivarius, and because the supply is limited, these old violins are worth millions of dollars. Most musicians are loaned vintage violins by rich patrons of the Arts, who fund the purchase of such instruments. Nobody has yet been able to determine why Stradivarius, Amati and Guanarius sound so great. Some say it could be the resins used by the Master luthiers. But one fact is undeniable: the more you play a stringed wooden musical instrument, the better it sounds. Maybe its because of the millions of vibrations imparted on it by the player, which somehow re-aligns the molecules of the wood. The more mystical say that the instrument has been infused by the soul of the player (in which case a bad player will make an instrument sound worse?)
Whatever it is, the respect for old violins and guitars has spawned an industry where guitars are being artificially aged- both to look cool, and to sound better. In the case of the electric guitar, Fender Inc has a line of 'Relic' and 'Road-Worn' guitars to appeal to those who yearn for an old guitar, but cannot afford one. [My friend Bill Kirchen's 1953 Fender Telecaster above would have been worth $US20000- except that from the latest news I heard, it has been retired. It is so battered, and the neck and frets are in such condition that it is beyond repair] * Bill plays a genre of music called Dieselbilly , something like Country and Western with lots of twangy guitar, but meant for the long distance truck drivers of the USA. He sings about life on the road, missing the family, one-nite stands, Diners and Diner waitresses, the highway police patrol, running out of money etc.
Fender chooses lighter, dried-out pieces of wood for their aged guitars since old guitars are usually lighter as the moisture of the wood has dried out. Old-type Nitrocellulose lacquers are also used for the surface coating as modern polyesters although glossier and longer-lasting just don't cut it when it comes to tone. It seems Nitrocellulose enables a guitar to breathe better and sound better. As for the rest of the aged look, the guitar is deliberately made to look used and abused as if it has undergone years of hard playing by talented but hard luck musicians who have no time for pretty guitars. Just imagine a Mississippi Blues player's guitar with beer stains and cigarette burns on its body, and the paintwork peeled of to reveal the naked wood. My new Road-Worn Fender Telecaster shown above isn't that used and abused but sounds great. Weighing it at only 6.8 lbs versus a normal Telecaster's weight of 7.5 to 8.0 lbs, it is really a piece of art to me, for me to infuse with my musical soul.
Well, recently Brendon of http://www.bgwguitars.com/ also showed me the ToneRite- a piece of electronic equipment that when attached to the guitar body emits vibrations in a simulation of the aging process when the guitar is played. So now it seems that we don't have to wait years for the guitar to mature (like old
wine). The whole process can be speeded up to yield results in a month or so.
But Brendon tells me that ToneRite is more effective for acoustic and archtop hollow body guitars rather than electric guitars.
Great guitars are meant to be played. Not meant to be stored in a bank vault. Many 50's and 60's Gibson Les Pauls each worth more than US$100000 are languishing in bank vaults. Bought by investment banker and hedge fund manager types who can't play a note but know the investment value of such guitars. To me this is a cardinal sin. Better to play a guitar hard and then retire it like Bill's beloved Tele and Clapton's 'Blackie ' Stratocaster.

Friday, July 30, 2010

Extraordinary Photos And Paintings From An Extraordinary Friend

Below are some extraordinary photos and paintings from an extremely talented childhood friend of mine. Thubten Kway, formerly Victor Kway. Now a staunch Tibetan Buddhist, he resides in Fellbach, Germany near Stuttgart. You can see more of his work at www.flickr.com/thubtenkway . He is also a master musician and composer. What a joy to see such works.
1. Peeper
2. Dragon Fly
3. Butterfly
4. Vineyard
5. Shining Lama
6. Fishing Boat
7. Pink Rose
8. Eat And Be Eaten
9. Three Carps And Lilies

Monday, July 26, 2010

Stock Market Data As Art: Self-Organizing Maps

1. Self-Organized clusters of S&P500 stocks, plus screened Growth, Quality and Value stocks
1. Statistics of the self-organized clusters shwoing the model variables of the screened stocks
3. Short/Long Areas of the self-organizing map.
Though generated for serious analysis of the U.S. stock markets, these colorful self-organizing maps are attractive in an artistic way. Taken from my financial markets Blog, these images were generated using Self-Organizing Map technology [SOM], which is a form of Artificial Intelligence. In essence the map clustered elements according to their degree of similarity. Imagine it as a matrix with each row representing a stock, and each column filled with data on fundmental and technical characteristics of the stock e.g. its P/E, the last 5 years Return, the Sharpe Ratio, the estimated Earnings Per Share etc. All in there were about 30 variables for each stock. The SOM took into account all the variables of all the stocks simultaneously when plotting the Map- a feat that no human brain can achieve or visualize. Think of it as a hugely multi-dimensional problem- if one row and three columns represents three dimensions, then in this case 600 rows and 30 columns represents a dimension of m rows x n columns
The output from three screens for Value stocks, Growth stocks and Quality stocks was plotted on the map. Since there was a Long and a Short version of these screens altogether there were about 120 stocks. Add to this, the 500 stocks of the S&P500 Index. Screened stocks are labeled with their Type (G=Growth, V=Value, Q=Quality), mode (L=Long, S=Short) and Sector to which they belonged [B=Basic Industries, C= Capital Goods, D=Consumer Durables, E=Energy, F=Finance, H= Health Care, ND=Consumer Non-Durables, T=Technology, TP= Transportation, U=Public Utilities]. Thus GLE is a Long Growth stock from the Energy sector or VSH is a Short Value stock from the Health Care sector. I= component of S&P500 Index.
Image 1 shows three clusters. Yellow clusters contain most of the stocks with an L i.e. long. Red cluster contains most of the stocks with an S i.e. Short. Blue cluster contains most of the S&P500 Index components. Note that 'I' stocks are also present in Yellow and Red clusters and a sprinkling of screened stocks are scattered over the Blue cluster too.
Image 2 with all the colorful bars shows some of the fundamental attributes of the the three clusters, S1, S2 and S3. The length of each bar is a measure of the deviation of the cluster mean from the Mean of the entire data set. The coded color key of each attribute is at the bottom of the chart.
Image 3 shows that after interpolation by the SOM based on the screened stocks, the map is divided into Long area [Red], and Short area [Blue]. Ambiguous areas are denoted as non-Red and non-Blue i.e. Green, Yellow, Organge]

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Financial Markets: Why You Can't Beat The Big Boys In Short Term Trading

BioComp System's Dakota Swarm Intelligence In Action
I don't usually post articles on financial markets in this blog, since I have a special purpose Blog for it at http://www.technifundamentals.com/ . But the great number of advertisements in the local papers claiming to be able to make you rich quick in Forex, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives prompted this post. Small investors may not know it. But for short-term trading, the odds are against them when competing with the Big Boys in the market. For the individual house-wife, retiree and wannabe traders who think that using technical analysis charting is sufficient, they will find it interesting to have a glimpse of machine-controlled high frequency trading supported by tools far beyond their understanding and financial means. I have been fortunate enough to have a glimpse of such tools although these tools are incompatible with my risk profile, my character and mental make-up. This post shows the reader three examples of such fantasy world tools.
First, some basics on short-term trading: Short term-trading is defined here as the range of trading from 500-1000 trades per second to trading within the trading day. Short-term trading is different from medium and long-term investment in that you will be trading on the market noise and not the fundamentals. Noise has three aspects: Momentum [mathematically termed as continuation of trend], Oversold/Overbought [Reversion to the Mean] and spreads [statistical volatility. Because short-term trading is trading on market noise which has a mathematical and not fundamental basis, it is predictable and/or profitable if patterns can be discerned from complex data, or the sheer brute force of computer power can calculate the optimum buy/sell level from a billion combinations, or being the fastest enables profiting from fractions of a cent by doing thosuands of transactions within a minute. Technical analysis suits Short-term trading because the shorter the trading horizon, the less the probability of it being subjected to external shocks, which are inherently unpredictable. In the last five years the prospect of huge profits has resulted in a virtual arms race for new and exotic technologies to discover the Holy Grail of trading systems. I illustrate my post with three Companies I know of, and their products
1. Dr. Richard Olsen, CEO of Olsen Associates, OANDA Forex, and other investment technology Companies
10 years ago I made the acquaintance of Dr. Richard Olsen, a Swiss Economist and mathematician who gave me an autographed copy of a book which he and his partners in Olsen and Associates wrote: “ An Introduction To High Frequency Finance” [Academic Press, 2001]. The book is one of the pioneering books on high frequency trading, and deals with collection and analysis of tick-by-tick data on forex transactions. Dr. Olsen’s main point is that usually when we analyse the markets, we have at most a few hundred data points. But when he is able to collect 100000 data points day on price, volume, it makes statistical analysis much more meaningful, i.e. much more valid. He also talks about how elements of Chaos Theory is seen in such data viz the evidence of fractals (self-similarity on different scales] Dr. Olsen has been very generous in sharing his knowledge with all, and if you go his main web site at Olsens World http://www.olsen.ch/ , there is an article entitled " Why Policy Makers Need To Take Note Of High Frequency Finance" that is worthwhile to read. The link is here:http://www.olsenblog.com/2010/02/why-policy-makers-need-to-take-note-of-high-frequency-finance/ . At Olsen Scale http://www.olsen.ch/what_we_do/olsen_scale/ you can see a live demonstration of how news affects currency exchange rates. The Olsen Scale is so-called because of its similarity to the Richter Scale for earthquakes. You can see the effect of news and sudden changes in liquidity on for example USD vs Yen, vs Euro, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD and CAD all at once.
2. Carl Cook of BioComp Systems. Carl has been developing pattern recognition trading software since the early '90s. A Chemical Engineer by training, he has a thriving business in the Oil & Gas Industry, utilising his knowledge of advanced technologies for optimization of refinery operations as well as stimulation and extraction of the output of old wells. He is a consultant to Petronas and makes frequent trips to Miri, Sarawak. Carl's latest invention is a software called Dakota, that makes use of Swarm Intelligence to get a consensus on forecasts. Swarm Intelligene is based on the observation that swarms of bees, schools of fish, flocks of birds, colonies of ants are each a super-organism with distributed processes i.e. decentrakized decision-making. Wikipedia expresses it well: Swarm intelligence (SI) describes the collective behaviour of decentralized, self-organized systems, natural or artificial. The concept is employed in work on artificial intelligence. The expression was introduced by Gerardo Beni and Jing Wang in 1989, in the context of cellular robotic systems.[1]
SI systems are typically made up of a population of simple agents or boids interacting locally with one another and with their environment. The agents follow very simple rules, and although there is no centralized control structure dictating how individual agents should behave, local, and to a certain degree random, interactions between such agents lead to the emergence of "intelligent" global behavior, unknown to the individual agents. Natural examples of SI include ant colonies, bird flocking, animal herding, bacterial growth, and fish schooling.I have a copy of Dakota, but have not had the time to fully explore it. My initial impression is that you need the real-time version and some consultancy service from Carl if you are going to trade intra-day with it. It is difficult to get even a 1-day ahead forecast with the end-of-day version of Dakota.

3. RML Technologies and its Genetic Programming technology This unique Company's technology is licensed to http://www.tradingsystemlab.com/ and the software licences start at a cool US$60000 a month for the professional version. I can imagine only the likes of Goldman Sachs or a hedge fund like Renaissance Technologies can afford to use systems like that. RML uses Genetic Programming in machine code to 'evolve' a trading system for you. You just have to specify your objectives. Genetic Programing, like Swarm Intelligence, is derived from biological systems. The language of GP will sound weird to the uninitiated. An initial random population is seeded. 'Individuals' in this population compete to be the fittest acccording to a specified fitness function. There are tournaments and 'winner take all' algorithms. There are 'parents' and 'children' and the ' elite'. The population evolves by cross-overs of genes, and by mutations. Only fit individuals are allowed to carry over to the next generation. At the end of it all, comes an optimally robust solution after billions of runs and thousands of generations in computer time. Being programmed in machine code, RML is able to run 200 times faster than its competitors, and able to run through a billion combinations to find the optimal strategy in a few minutes.
These examples are meant to illustrate that at the most, the individual investor can ride on the coat-tails of super volume super-speed traders using super technologies and hopefully get off before they stop the music. Logically speaking in this type of trading environment, it is better to use trend-following systems than overbought/oversold oscillators. You are going to have a harder time picking the bottom and top than riding on the momentum of a trend. You will also have Volume to assist in confirmation of the trend's sustainability.

Saturday, June 12, 2010

Classic Comfort Food: Fried Vermicelli with Narcissus Brand Pork Trotters

The real McCoy: Narcissus Brand Stewed Pork Trotters
An imitation: Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery
Artery-clogging it may be but it's comfort food par excellence

A stall serving this iconic dish with its stack of cans of the pork trotters, to ensure that you know the cook is using the real thing.

Fried vermicelli with Narcissus brand stewed pork trotters. The mere thought of it is enough to conjure up images of mother, family gatherings, festivals, homes full of aunties, uncles, cousins, babies, grandmother and grandfather to many Chinese in Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia. For generations, this canned food in its distinctive yellow packaging has been a staple of home festive cooking. Chinese New Year, weddings, birthdays of the elderly and the new-born have all been welcomed by a big dish of fried vermicelli with Narcissus brand stewed pork trotters. Cans of pork trotters are also used as gifts and symbolize that you wish the recipient a long and prosperous life or, for the newly married, a happy marriage with lots of children.
The origin of using canned pork trotters as gifts and as food on auspicious occasions can probably be traced to the Chinese tradition of giving and cooking real legs of pork on such occasions. I suppose, over time it was simply more convenient to give canned pork trotters instead of the real thing. But what makes Narcissus stand out to be the only acceptable brand to use? There are many imitations of the real thing, complete with yellow packaging and design and the second image from the top shows one of these. But giving or using imitations of the real thing would be tantamount to an insult. They just don't taste the same. The gravy of Gulong brand above is more diluted and is not redolent with the smell of subtle combination of spices. The cuts of pork are not tender nor are they sufficiently tender.
Iconic status aside, how does a dish of Fried Vermicelli Narcissus brand stewed pork trotters rate as a classic dish? In my opinion, this is one of the few instances when canned can be said to be better than fresh. Try cooking the vermicelli with fresh pork trotters and something is missing. Maybe it's true what they say, that delicious-ness is always tainted by cultural experiences, and associative memories. Which is why I never understand why Americans like their Hot Dogs and Hamburgers smothered with Chili and Cheese and why Hawaiians and other some South-Sea Islanders consider Spam a staple food . Nevertheless, no one can doubt that the combination of pork, mushroom and chestnuts, when absorbed by vermicelli and with a hint with bitterness from the garnish of Mustard Greens is in accordance with general principles of cooking on complementary tastes and textures.

Saturday, May 22, 2010

The Pine Barrens of New Jersey

The Jersey Devil of the Pine Barrens: Survivor of the Jurassic age or result of an unholy union with the Devil?

Guitar players learning how to flat-pick at Albert Hall, near Waretown

Aerial view of the Pine Barrens of New Jersey

A concert in Albert Hall

A big fat cat belonging to the owner of the General Store in Chatsworth


A house in Chatsworth

The General Store in Chatsworth

A music store in Mount Holly that sells folk music instruments

Think New Jersey, and most outsiders think of ugly oil refineries, the derelict bridges and pot-holed roads that connect it to New York, and crime-ridden towns like Trenton and Camden, all in all a not too flattering image of the State that calls itself "The Garden State". Some parts of New Jersey such as the sea-side resort town of Cape May in the South,the rolling hills of Vernon near the border with New York, and towns like Lambertville and Frenchtown along the Delaware river bordering Pennsylvania still retain their charms; but by and large most people would not consider New Jersey a tourist paradise. However, many people do not know of the Pine Barrens, an area 1/5 the size of NJ, about 1000 square miles, that is as remote and unpopulated as parts of Maine and upper New York State. This area of sandy soil and pine trees has an unique ecosystem and an even more unique population. It is protected as a heritage area by Federal law which ensures that it will remain as it is. Through the years, many who have chosen to abandon the urban jungle and its stress, and many who need the space and quietness to pursue their artistic inclinations have gravitated to the Pine Barrens. Painters, poets,potters, musicians, naturalists are abundant in the Pine Barrens. In Waretown, on the edge of the Pine Barrens, you can visit the Albert Hall for regular concerts that feature the mountain music of the Piney's ,with their guitars, fiddles, and banjos. In the small town of Chatsworth which is famous for its Cranberry bogs [swamps], poets gather at the Buzby's General Store for poetry readings and and potters and other handicraft makers go there to have their works displayed. See http://www.pineypower.com/buzbys.htm The Pine Barrens is also supposed to be the home of the Jersey Devil, a half-human creature reportedly sighted intermittently by over 2000 people for the last 260 years. "There are many different versions of the birth of the Jersey Devil. One of the most popular legends says a Mrs. Shrouds of Leeds Point, NJ made a wish that if she ever had another child, she want it to be a devil. Her next child was born misshapen and deformed. She sheltered it in the house, so the curious couldn't see him. On stormy night, the child flapped it's arms, which turned into wings, and escaped out the chimney and was never seen by the family again" A web site dedicated to proving that the Jersey Devil exists is Dave Juliano's http://theshadowlands.net/jd.htm
As I drive along the deserted twisted roads that form a network connecting different parts of the Pine Barrens, there is an eerie feeling that I am being watched by eyes hidden amongst the Pygmy Pines and Oaks. There really is something strange about the Pine Barrens